As we have emphasized in recent years, we keep a close eye on fiscal policy, monetary policy, and interest rates. A lot has remained the same since our previous quarterly recap as monetary policy is still tight, fiscal policy remains nonexistent, and interest rates, although hit with a slight decline in Q1 2023, remain at historically elevated levels.
Our perspective has not changed much from the mid-year market commentary earlier this year. Since the 2nd Quarter commentary was published, the markets have corrected even further, and energy has still been the one shining star.
The major equity markets (S&P 500, EFA, EEM) are all down year to date, with the U.S. market being down less than the others but still down over 17%.
The major equity markets (S&P 500, EFA, EEM) did well for the 4th quarter, with the US market being the shining star for 2021. We were concerned that there could be some consolidation, but it didn’t happen.
The major equity markets (S&P 500, EFA, EEM) have done well for the 3rd quarter, with the US markets being the shining star. While we think there will be some consolidation, we still expect this year to end positively.
The major equity markets (S&P 500, EFA, EEM) have done well for the 2nd quarter, with the US markets being the shining star. While we think there will be some consolidation, we still expect this year to end positively.
It has been a couple of extraordinary weeks marked by numerous headlines and historical market moves. While we have attempted on numerous occasions to send out an update…often writing into the early hours of the morning…we wake up to find that our thoughts are being reflected in current news and dismissing the updates. One of [...]
Talking Points What is “good” for the fight against the Coronavirus (COVID-19), is “bad” for the economy. The need for sudden action. The risk of a stop-start economy and consumer. Likely a short recession. Significant stimulus both fiscal and monetary, but more is needed from Fiscal side. Fundamentals will matter again. The New, New [...]
Late Cycle We believe that the markets are in late cycle. During late cycle, you start to look for more defensive or hedge positions and extend duration in your high-quality fixed income portfolio. The momentum of the market is strong at this point and we will pay attention to this momentum to help us adjust [...]
Lower for (even) longer In our January oil outlook update, our forecast for oil prices this year was adjusted down to $30~$50 from $40~$60, expecting the realignment of OPEC quota post Iran/Iraq production increases to normalize oil prices back to $80 range in 2018. OPEC inaction and weakening Chinese appetite were key factors behind the [...]