2nd Quarter 2021 Market Commentary

The major equity markets (S&P 500, EFA, EEM) have done well for the 2nd quarter, with the US markets being the shining star. While we think there will be some consolidation, we still expect this year to end positively. After a poor 1st quarter, fixed income has posted positive returns in the 2nd quarter [...]

2nd Quarter 2021 Market Commentary2021-08-02T19:51:17-06:00

The Study of Market Corrections 

It has been a couple of extraordinary weeks marked by numerous headlines and historical market moves. While we have attempted on numerous occasions to send out an update…often writing into the early hours of the morning…we wake up to find that our thoughts are being reflected in current news and dismissing the updates. One of [...]

The Study of Market Corrections 2020-04-03T12:25:36-06:00

Coronavirus and the Market

Talking Points What is “good” for the fight against the Coronavirus (COVID-19), is “bad” for the economy. The need for sudden action. The risk of a stop-start economy and consumer. Likely a short recession. Significant stimulus both fiscal and monetary, but more is needed from Fiscal side. Fundamentals will matter again. The New, New [...]

Coronavirus and the Market2020-03-20T14:36:15-06:00

Market Outlook 2020 

Late Cycle  We believe that the markets are in late cycle. During late cycle, you start to look for more defensive or hedge positions and extend duration in your high-quality fixed income portfolio. The momentum of the market is strong at this point and we will pay attention to this momentum to help us adjust [...]

Market Outlook 2020 2020-03-20T14:29:46-06:00

Crude Oil Outlook Update

Lower for (even) longer In our January oil outlook update, our forecast for oil prices this year was adjusted down to $30~$50 from $40~$60, expecting the realignment of OPEC quota post Iran/Iraq production increases to normalize oil prices back to $80 range in 2018. OPEC inaction and weakening Chinese appetite were key factors behind the [...]

Crude Oil Outlook Update2018-11-01T19:31:59-06:00

Noise Cancelling

Since unwinding the briefly held 1x long US and International equity market positions in June, we remained defensive through July. Our proprietary global risk signal has shown benign conditions since the Greek debt negotiations. Market volatility has also been kept at historical lows. In the short term, we expect volatility to normalize with the risk [...]

Noise Cancelling2018-11-01T19:32:00-06:00